Ukraine peace talks fizzle out as Trump’s focus shifts to Iran

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The US-led peace process in Ukraine is fizzling out because Donald Trump is losing interest in the talks and his war against Iran is easing pressure on Russia, officials say.

The conflict in the Middle East has diverted Washington’s attention from a peace deal, according to four EU diplomats involved in talks with Ukraine. At the same time, the diplomats said, it was benefiting Russia through higher oil prices, a suspension of US sanctions and the rapid depletion of American munitions Kyiv needed.

The negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian officials, mediated by the US, were “really in the danger zone”, said a senior European official.

“A pause has indeed appeared in the talks. The Americans have other priorities, and that’s understandable,” said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.

The last three-way peace talks took place in Geneva on February 17-18. Another round due to take place on March 5 in Abu Dhabi was postponed because of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, and a new date and venue have yet to be announced.

“The Middle East has severely reoriented political attention” away from Ukraine, one of the EU diplomats said. “For us, and for Ukraine, it’s a disaster.”

EU countries had been told that US arms shipments, particularly air defence, would be delayed as Washington prioritised Middle Eastern customers, the diplomats said, with major ramifications for Kyiv.

“It is definitely a problem because you have a competition for the same assets really, in the Middle East as well as in Ukraine,” Kaja Kallas, the EU’s chief diplomat, told the FT. “Clearly America’s attention right now is on the Middle East.”
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Trump’s war with Iran has given Russia an unexpected lifeline by driving up global energy prices, helping the Kremlin recoup additional revenue of up to $150mn a day. The US relaxed sanctions on Thursday and its pressure on India not to buy Russian oil, prompting a significant number of tankers to head to the Indian Ocean.

Washington’s move “certainly does not help peace”, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had so far largely refrained from criticising Trump over the war, likely in an effort to stop the US from swinging more firmly behind Ukraine, the people involved in back-channel talks said. The two presidents spoke on Monday, when Putin suggested ways Russia could mediate an end to the conflict in the Middle East.

But in the negotiations with Ukraine, the Kremlin has shown no willingness to compromise and has itself become frustrated with the process. “The talks are running out of steam. They need to breathe some new life into this format,” said one of the people involved in back-channel efforts to end the war.