Paul Goble: JD Vance's upcoming visit to Armenia, Azerbaijan less about ceremony, more about reassurance

US Vice President J.D. Vance’s upcoming visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan is notable not only for where he is going, but for the fact that he is going at all.

Asked about what makes Armenia and Azerbaijan important enough to warrant one of Vance’s rare foreign trips, former US State Department official Paul Goble points first to the broader regional picture.

"Both Azerbaijan and Armenia are increasingly important to the US, not only because they have each distanced themselves from Moscow and support TRIPP," Goble explains, "but also because tensions over Iran are certainly going to spill over into the South Caucasus."
From this perspective, the visit is less about ceremony and more about reassurance. Goble argues that Vance is arriving in Baku and Yerevan "to reassure them of US support and cheer them on concerning the directions they have been going," at a moment when instability south of the region could quickly affect security calculations to the north.

That assessment also reframes the timing. While the midterm elections loom large in Washington, Goble believes they are not the primary driver.

"I think the problems in Iran explain the timing of the visit far more than the midterms," he says, though he adds that Vance is "certainly" aware of the domestic political upside, "perhaps especially in Armenia, given the number of Armenians in key districts in the US," and in light of what Goble describes as Vance’s likely presidential ambitions in the next election cycle.
Another question hovering over the visit is how prepared Washington is to respond if the peace agreement begins to fray. Mutual accusations of violations are not uncommon in post-conflict environments, and the South Caucasus is no exception.

Here, Goble is blunt about US concerns.

"Washington is certainly aware that each side in the South Caucasus is likely to accuse the other of violating the deal Trump oversaw in August 2025," he notes. "What it wants to do is to ensure that such charges do not escalate into open conflict."
The task, as Goble frames it, is not adjudication but containment: "managing and reassuring both sides of American support for the deal and for all who keep faithful to that deal."