Forecasting the world in 2026

The Financial Times on New Year's Eve published its traditional annual forecasts.

Last year's fT forecasts were the worst on record – seven out of 20 were wrong at once. For example, the newspaper made a mistake in predicting a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia (although negotiations were ongoing), interest rates in the United States (they were lowered), and Musk's quarrel with Trump (they had a fight but then made up).

This year, one of the first forecasts again concerns Ukraine.
The newspaper predicts that the president Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not be able to force withdraw troops from Donbas because it is too dangerous "for military, constitutional and political reasons".
"A withdrawal from the territories to create a demilitarized zone controlled by neither side would be unviable and unacceptable to either Moscow or Kyiv. Only an unlikely collapse of defense would force Ukraine to capitulate," the forecast says.

General level US trade duties will no longer increase.

The Republican Party is losing november midterm elections in the United Statesdemocrats will regain the majority in the House of Representatives, but not in the Senate. It is possible that a third impeachment trial will take place.

The AI bubble will burst, but large companies will survive and the overall market decline will be limited to 10-15%.Pre-term presidential elections in France will not be.

Chinese yuan will not strengthen significantly.

Isolation of the AfD in Germany will remain in place. The Christian Democratic Union will not cooperate with Alternative for Germany, because any shift will lead to a split in the governing coalition with the Social Democratic Party of Germany.

Prime Minister of Japan Sanae Takaichi will remain in office for the entire year.

With the exception of Japan, central banks will continue to reduce interest rates in 2026.

The UK Labor Party will get a poor result in the May elections, which could jeopardize the the post of prime minister Kira Starmera.

There will be a series of complex bankruptcies among private companies.

Saudi Arabia and Israel do not normalize relations.

The first home humanoid robots.

GDP growth in Africa will be slightly higher than in Asia. Half of the world's 20 fastest growing economies will be African next year.

The cost of gold will rise above $5000 per ounce.

The emergence of a commercially viable quantum computer in 2026 will not happen, but it will happen soon.

President of Brazil Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wins a record fourth term.

Artificial intelligence will not be able to create a song that would top the charts.

Tesla will not be able to reverse the decline in market share in the United States, the European Union, and China.

None of the professional women athletes will be able to push men in the list of fifty the highest paid athletes of the world.