Trade uncertainty to trim $850 billion global output: Fed paper

Trade policy uncertainty driven by the Trump administration’s escalating dispute with China means hundreds of billions of dollars in lost U.S. output and as much as $850 billion lost globally through early next year, research published this week by the Federal Reserve suggests.

The Fed researchers analyzed newspaper articles and corporate earnings calls to estimate trade policy uncertainty, finding it has recently “shot up to levels not seen since the 1970s.”

Other economists, notably Stanford University professor Nicholas Bloom and his colleagues, have documented a similar rise in uncertainty.