Hopes dim for diplomacy to end war as Russia pounds Ukraine

Instead of peace talks, the war in Ukraine appears to be entering a new phase of escalation with Russia launching massive missile and drone attacks on its neighbor and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz saying Kyiv has been given permission to strike inside Russia with Western-supplied long-range missiles.

During his nightly video message on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia was preparing to go on the offensive and that the Kremlin was not planning “to end the war.”

“There is currently no indication that they are seriously considering peace or diplomacy,” Zelenskyy said. “On the contrary, there is ample evidence that they are preparing new offensive operations.”

His statement confirms observations by experts who believe Russia is amassing troops and weapons for a possible large-scale offensive this summer in a bid to force Kyiv into surrendering.

Last Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Russian troops were creating a “buffer zone” along the border with Ukraine to prevent attacks.

It appears this means Ukraine's northeastern regions of Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv may be in the Kremlin's sights. Already, Russian troops have captured at least four settlements in Sumy, a region from which Ukraine launched an offensive last August against Russia's Kursk region. A week ago, officials began evacuating residents in Sumy.

In another sign of Moscow's aggressive intentions, Russia has massively escalated its bombing of Ukraine in recent days.

On Saturday night, Russia fired 14 ballistic missiles and 250 drones, most of them targeting Kyiv. On Sunday night, it launched 69 missiles and 298 drones against Ukraine, killing at least 16 people, including three children. Monday night saw the biggest drone attack yet by Russia in the war with 355 drones and nine cruise missiles flying into Ukraine. The campaign slowed Tuesday with fewer drones targeting Ukrainian towns and cities.

Ukraine says it shot down many of the drones and missiles, but still there were large explosions recorded in Kyiv, Odesa and elsewhere. Moscow said its attacks were in response to Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russia. Kyiv is hitting targets inside Russia, but so far its attacks have not matched those of Russia in scale.

It is now widely believed that Russia has overtaken Ukraine in drone warfare both in terms of quantity and sophistication. Ukraine held the edge in drone warfare earlier in the fighting.

On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump lashed out at Putin for Russia's onslaught, calling him “crazy.”

“I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “He has gone absolutely CRAZY! He is needlessly killing a lot of people, and I’m not just talking about soldiers.”

Trump said it appeared Putin wanted to take “all of Ukraine, not just a piece of it” and warned that if he tried to do that “it will lead to the downfall of Russia.”

Trump also criticized Zelenskyy for “talking the way he does.”

“Everything out of his mouth causes problems, I don’t like it, and it better stop,” he said. In the same post, he blamed Putin, Zelenskyy and former U.S. President Joe Biden for causing the war to break out.

Since returning to the White House, Trump has sought to bring Putin and Zelenskyy to the negotiating table, but so far those efforts have failed, with both sides unwilling to back down from their opposing demands.

Trump faces tough choices in the coming days, especially if negotiations fall apart. The White House appears divided between those inside the administration who want to apply even more pressure on Russia and those who want to walk away. There are reports in U.S. media that Trump may back tougher sanctions on Russia and even try to go after countries that buy Russian crude oil and natural gas. This strategy, though, presents a lot of risks because China, India and others are buying lots of Russian energy supplies.

Russia is expected to draw up its conditions for peace talks soon, though they are unlikely to be much different from what the Kremlin has repeatedly stated. The White House suggested holding new negotiations at the Vatican or in Geneva, but Russia has not agreed to those locations and insisted on continuing talks in Istanbul.

Putin's chief demands on Ukraine include ceding territory Russia has occupied, opting out of joining NATO and agreeing to limit the size of its military. Zelenskyy has rejected all these demands and says Ukraine will never give up its territory. He says the nation must become part of NATO to feel safe.

On Monday, Merz, the new German leader, caused tensions to rise further by saying that Western allies had lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range missiles.

“There are no longer any range restrictions on weapons delivered to Ukraine — neither by the British nor by the French nor by us nor by the Americans,” he said at a Berlin conference, as reported by German media. “This means that Ukraine can now defend itself, for example, by attacking military positions in Russia ... With very few exceptions, it didn't do that until recently. It can now do that.”

On Tuesday, Merz sought to cast his statement as confirming Biden's approval last November to lift restrictions on the use of long-range missiles. Still, the Kremlin interpreted it as a new threat and warned European powers against continuing to arm Ukraine. This week, the Netherlands said it was sending a last batch of F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said negotiations to end the war through diplomacy would be upended if Merz was in fact ready to allow Ukraine to strike targets deep inside Russia.

“If this is true, then it is an extremely dangerous decision,” Peskov said, as reported by Tass, a Russian state news agency. “It moves us several steps closer to direct confrontation and, of course, runs counter to the tenuous peace settlement efforts that have just begun.”

On Tuesday, Merz accused Russia of being the side jeopardizing diplomacy by launching its attacks on Ukraine and refusing to agree to a 30-day ceasefire proposed by Trump. He warned the war would likely continue for a while.

“Wars typically end because of economic or military exhaustion on one side or on both sides, and in this war we are obviously still far from reaching that [situation],” Merz said at a news conference during a visit to Finland. “So, we may have to prepare for a longer duration.”