Vardan Oskanian: "May 28 - a celebration shadowed by undermined Sovereignty"

May 28: A Celebration Shadowed by Undermined Sovereignty
Each year on May 28, Armenians around the world pause to commemorate the establishment of the First Republic of Armenia in 1918—a short-lived but heroic assertion of national self-determination after centuries of foreign domination. It is a day of pride, remembrance, and solemn gratitude. But this year, as we mark the anniversary, we must also confront a painful truth: Armenia’s independence today is at its most fragile and diminished state since the country regained sovereignty in 1991.
This is not a rhetorical flourish. It is a sober assessment of political reality. The very foundations of Armenian statehood—sovereignty, security, and unity—are under unprecedented strain.
The defeat in the 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh was a turning point. But it was not just the loss of territory—it was the loss of deterrence, confidence, and clarity of purpose. The Armenian army, once a symbol of national resilience, has been left weakened and demoralized. Its deterioration continues to this day, even as Azerbaijan grows more assertive and militarized.
Within Armenia’s own borders, the threat is no longer theoretical. Azerbaijani forces have encroached into sovereign Armenian territory, seizing strategic positions, building roads, and establishing illegal outposts. This is not a frozen conflict—it is an unfolding erosion of Armenia’s very borders, happening in real time.
Worse still, this erosion is met with paralysis at home. The government, weakened by repeated crises and plagued by inexperience, has failed to project either competence or vision. Policy is reactive rather than strategic. The promise of democratic renewal after 2018 has curdled into political polarization, public fatigue, and institutional fragility.
True independence requires that a country’s decision-makers be free to act in pursuit of national interests—guided by the public good, not fear or self-preservation. But today, Armenia’s leadership is not free. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan operates under constant pressure and threat from Azerbaijan. His overriding objective is not the long-term interest of the country but the short-term survival of his government. That dependency skews judgment and narrows options. A leader who is constrained, who governs from fear, cannot make sovereign decisions. And that, at its core, is what undermines Armenia’s independence today.
Now, in an audacious display of power politics, Azerbaijan not only presses territorial claims but demands changes to Armenia’s constitution—a direct assault on Armenian sovereignty and the very notion of self-governance.
What, then, does it mean to celebrate “independence” under such conditions?
It means recognizing that independence is not a static achievement, but a condition that must be actively defended—politically, militarily, socially, and morally. It means understanding that the institutions and symbols of the state are only as strong as the people’s will to uphold them. It means acknowledging that while Armenia may retain formal sovereignty, the substance of that sovereignty—our capacity to make decisions free from coercion or fear—is being steadily hollowed out.
May 28 should not be reduced to ritual. Let it be a reminder that independence is not just inherited from past generations—it must be earned anew by each one. The First Republic lasted barely two years. This Republic now faces its greatest test. We still have time to prove ourselves worthy of the name "independent state"—but only if we abandon illusions, confront hard truths, and act with unity and resolve.